938 Myanmar about to be Raped, with Geopolitical Consequences

Myanmar about to be Raped, with Geopolitical Consequences

Newsletter published on 23 October 2017

I've had a communication from a young man called Felix in Myanmar, who
works as a Development Consultant.

You've probably heard about the Rohingya conflict in Rakhine state. But
Myanmar has other, more serious conflicts in its peripheral areas,
conflicts in which artillery and aircraft are used. These conflicts have
been ongoing for decades.

Development projects in these peripheral areas are important for
stabilising the country, yet there are many hindrances:

- demarcation disputes between 'state' authorities and the federal
government

- demarcation disputes between local 'non-state' actors and the federal
government

These 'nonstate' actors raise funds by taxing enterprise in their area,
and disperse those funds via welfare services.

Because of the demarcation disputes, government development projects run
foul of the lines between 'federal, 'state', and 'non-state'.

Therefore, Felix believes that Private projects stand a better chance of
success.

Some are national, others by foreign companies, eg mining companies
based in China or the US.

Private companies from Western countries are not allowed to pay the
taxes that the 'non-state' actors demand. This is deemed 'corruption' in
the West, although the money is not going to rich dictators or Swiss
bank accounts. As a result, Private development projects are stalled.

The military regime tried to liberalise the economy, establishing a
national private sector and a developmental program; but sanctions
imposed by the West destroyed that private sector.

After Aung San Suu Kyi won the election, some economic sanctions were
removed, but others remain.

Aung San Suu Kyi has had no economic policy so far, except to rely on
foreign advisers who peddle the IMF line.

The IMF has recommended a Credit Squeeze, preparatory to opening the
country to large-scale Foreign Investment. And the Burmese Central Bank
has implemented that Credit Squueze.

Nikkei Weekly envisages trouble ahead:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Economy/Myanmar-moves-to-stave-off-credit-crunch

This sounds like a recipe for Rape, as happened to Latvia and other
Baltic States in the wake to the collapse of the Soviet Union; and to
South Korea after the 1997 Asia Crisis.

Now the Military say that Aung San Suu Kyi is a tool of the West.

As you know, Myanmar is a frontline in the struggle between the US and
China. If Western companies are allowed to loot the country, the results
would be unpredicatble, eg military proxies could win the next election,
or there could be a coup.

Felix is in contact with all the major players in Myanmar. He believes
that the looming Credit Crunch will cause the currency to collapse, with
disastrous consequences for Myanmar, and is trying to head off such
events before it's too late.

What can be done? Two simple things, for a start:

Western countries could drop the remaining sanctions, which are harming
the economy. Such sanctions were implemented by the Obama regime on
'Human Rights' grounds; but the Trump regime, whilst not playing the
'Human Rights' card, has still not lifted them.

And Western countries could allow companies to pay the taxes 'non-state'
actors demand, dropping their interpretation that this amounts to
Corruption. It's simply the only way to do business in those remote
areas; and it DOES fund social services.