48 Vietnam to replace slow Colonial railway with Japanese bullet trains

(1) Border tensions rise between India and China over Himalayas
(2) China forces NGOs to register as companies; Open Constitution Initiative sounds Soros-like
(3) Vietnam to replace slow Colonial railway with Japanese bullet trains
(4) Japan trainmaker shares jump on Vietnam deal report
(5) Vietnam plans Japanese bullet train link: media
(6) Japanese wholesale prices fall by a record 8.5%
(7) Japan Should Scrap U.S. Debt; Dollar May Plummet - Akio Mikuni (Dec '08)
(8) Japan pays its nikkeijin to return to Brazil

(1) Border tensions rise between India and China over Himalayas

http://www.smh.com.au/world/border-tensions-rise-between-india-and-china-over-himalayas-20090814-el7l.html

Date: August 15 2009

Matt Wade Herald Correspondent in New Delhi

THERE are fears that a stand-off between India and China over a little-known region of the Himalayas could seriously damage ties between the Asian giants.

China lays claim to much of Arunachal Pradesh, a mountainous Indian province on the country's north-eastern extremity, and strategic experts in New Delhi warn that tensions in the remote border region are on the rise.

''Largely unknown to the rest of the world, India-China border tensions have escalated in recent months,'' says Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at Delhi's Centre for Policy Research. ''Things are getting really intense and from the Indian perspective outrageous.''

More aggressive border patrolling by Chinese forces including incursions into Indian territory has forced the Indian army to bolster its presence along the 3500-kilometre border, analysts claim.

Representatives from both governments held an inconclusive round of talks over the disputed border in New Delhi last week. The meeting was described as ''cordial'' but there was no sign of progress.

A day after this week's talks, India's foreign policy establishment was rattled by Indian media reports that a think tank linked to the Chinese military had called for India to be split into 30 independent states. The paper said that if China ''takes a little action, the so-called great Indian federation can be broken up''.

This would be in China's interests and lead to more prosperity in the region, it said, according to reports. Countries friendly to China like Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal could help ''different nationalities'' such as Tamil and Kashmiri people so that they can establish independent nation states of their own.

The Indian Government took the article so seriously it issued a statement saying the two countries had agreed to ''resolve outstanding issues, including the boundary question, through peaceful dialogue and consultations, and with mutual sensitivity to each other's concerns''.

Feathers were ruffled in Delhi last week when the Indian media said Google satellite maps mysteriously showed the names of several towns in Arunachal Pradesh in Mandarin, not English or Hindi, making it appear the region was part of China.

There was further tension two months ago when Beijing objected to a $US60 million ($71.3 million) Asian Development Bank loan to India for a project in the territory China claims.

The disputed border follows the ''McMahon Line'' drawn up in 1914 when the British ruled India. Beijing does not recognise this demarcation and claims a large portion on the Indian side of the border, including the town of Tawang, the birthplace of the Dalai Lama.

In June the Governor of Arunachal Pradesh and former army Indian chief, retired general J.J. Singh, said up to 30,000 new troops would be deployed in the region. In June a state-run newspaper in China accused India of ''unwise military moves'' along the Arunachal Pradesh border.

Professor Chellaney says the border tensions are ominous. ''Any doubts that the Indian foreign policy establishment might have had about the threat posed by China have evaporated in recently months.''

(2) China forces NGOs to register as companies; Open Constitution Initiative sounds Soros-like

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/KH15Ad01.html

Aug 15, 2009

China's NGOs fear for the worst
By Verna Yu

HONG KONG - China has in recent weeks resorted to unusually heavy-handed tactics to crack down on non-governmental organizations (NGOs), prominent lawyers and human-rights activists, sparking concern that a new round of persecution has begun on the nation's nascent civil society.

Last month, authorities closed down the Open Constitution Initiative (locally known as Gongmeng), a NGO that provides free legal assistance, accusing it of tax evasion. Two weeks ago, its founder Xu Zhiyong, a respected law professor, was taken away by police and no one has been able to contact him since.

About the same time Xu, 36, was arrested, police raided the Beijing Yirenping Center, another NGO which works to fight discrimination against Hepatitis B patients and HIV carriers, accusing it of illegal publishing.

More than 20 human-rights lawyers have also recently been disbarred, likely due to sensitive cases they had taken on.

Targeting NGOs is nothing new for the Chinese government - officials are always wary of groups over which they have no direct control. Unlike almost every other institution in China, from labor unions to schools, NGOs do no represent the ruling Communist Party and often receive funding from the West.

According to statistics from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, there were 230,000 registered "social organizations" across the country at the end of 2008. By the government's definition, a registered "social organization" is the equivalent of a NGO, though some government-funded institutions (such as the All-China Federation of Trade Unions and the All-China Women’s Federation) are also included in this category.

Although Gongmeng has adopted a low profile since its founding in 2003, the kind of work it does might have touched a raw nerve with authorities. It has challenged China's so-called "black jails", campaigned for the rights of migrant workers and death-row inmates, and helped the parents of babies poisoned during last year's tainted milk scandal seek legal redress.

Just two months before the authorities closed it down, Gongmeng also published a bold and bi-partisan report that questioned government claims that the exiled Dalai Lama incited the Tibet protests last year.

The Chinese government believes it has reason to fear the growth of a robust civil society. For a worrying precedent it need only look at the role an independent labor union (Solidarity) played in the eventual meltdown of the communist regime in Poland.

"Even for NGOs without a clear-cut political agenda, the fact that they're not at the beck and call of the party already makes the party feel they are a potential threat," said Willy Lam, veteran China watcher and adjunct professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

"They're outside the control of the party and ... they are still seen as destabilizing agents."

The authorities' sudden move against Gongmeng, and the arrest of Xu, have sent shivers down the spines of other NGO workers in China.

Wan Yanhai, who runs the Beijing Aizhixing Institute, a human-rights group for HIV/AIDS sufferers, said the crackdown on Gongmeng had many NGOs across China worried, with many putting projects on hold.

"We are expecting the police to come any minute," he said. "We're in someone else's hands - so you don't know when you'll be squashed. The action they took, the way they fined and outlawed [Gongmeng], can be applied to any organization, so the first reaction that many NGOs have is fear."

Lu Jun, head of the Beijing Yirenping Center, said what happened to Gongmeng and his organization had put off other people who wanted to set up non-profit organizations.

"We feel a lot of pressure now - there are too many difficulties and risks involved in public welfare work in China."

Nicholas Bequelin, senior researcher at Human Rights Watch, said he feared the targeting of a prestigious NGO such as Gongmeng, whose board comprises prominent academics and veteran legal professionals. He said it was a signal that the government had little tolerance for activism, even within the legal framework.

"The sudden move against rights lawyers and Gongmeng will send a chilling effect across China's nascent civil society," he said. "Most NGOs are much more fragile than Gongmeng."

Chen Ziming, founder of two independent think-tanks that were shut down by the authorities in the late 1980s, said curbing the rise of civil society was ingrained in the government's psyche.

"Authoritarian regimes have this habit of suppressing the development of civil society," said Chen, who was also accused of being the "black hand" of the 1989 Tiananmen pro-democracy movement and imprisoned for 13 years.

"The crackdowns come in waves. This time they don't like what they've seen so they have to suppress them, targeting their funding and their resources ... it's just a matter of choosing whom."

To make it easier to target the organizations it does not trust, the Chinese government has long refrained from giving NGOs legal status so it can retain control over them, critics say. Chinese NGOs are therefore always in a state of limbo - they can only register as companies and donations and grants can be considered profits.

"It's a very smart strategy," said Xu Youyu, a retired professor of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. "If you do what is good for me, I'll let you do what you like, but over your head there will always be a Sword of Damocles. So if I want to get rid of you, I can do that easily."

There is speculation that the Chinese government is cracking the whip now because of its anxiety over sensitive anniversaries this year. Recent social unrest across China, including the turmoil in Tibet and the Xinjiang uprising, has also bolstered party conservatives' power, critics say.

"Our sense is that it [the NGO crackdown] reflects increasing anxieties by the leadership about social unrest, especially in the perspective of the symbolic 60th anniversary of the establishment of the People's Republic of China [on October 1]," said Bequelin. "[These] have resulted in the empowerment of the security apparatus and the hardliners within the system."

Critics say the latest round of suppression of civil society also shows that China has little to fear from international criticism.

China is the largest foreign holder of US debt, and with the US facing one of its worst economic crises ever, even Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and House speaker Nancy Pelosi played down human-rights issues during their visits to China this year.

"This might have affected the leadership's decision to crack the whip because they see that the international opinion isn't too hard on China," Lam said.

Critics now fear the repression of lawyers and NGOs means ordinary people's legitimate channels of airing grievances have been closed. This, they say, will only intensify social tensions and further erode people's faith in the government.

"It's a very unwise thing to do - defending rights through law is conducive towards social stability, and when all the NGOs are suppressed, it will have dreadful consequences," said He Weifang, a law professor at Peking University, who is also a consultant at Gongmeng.

"People will either bottle up their grievances or turn into mobsters to defend their rights," he said.

Verna Yu is a Hong Kong-based journalist.

(3) Vietnam to replace slow Colonial railway with Japanese bullet trains

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aKdkNJSKgOZM

Vietnam Railways to Adopt Japan Train Technology, Nikkei Says

By Fergus Maguire

Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnam Railways Corp. will use Japan’s bullet-train technology for a planned $56 billion link connecting Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, the Nikkei newspaper reporting, citing an interview with Chief Executive Officer Nguyen Huu Bang.

The Vietnam government aims to build the line in sections and start running high-speed trains by 2020, the report said.

Vietnam may seek to secure funds for the project from Japan’s official development assistance program, as well as the Asia Development Bank and the World Bank, the Nikkei said. The report didn’t identify any companies that could benefit from the project. Last Updated: August 12, 2009 17:18 EDT

(4) Japan trainmaker shares jump on Vietnam deal report

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUST11526820090813

Thu Aug 13, 2009 12:05am EDT

TOKYO, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Shares of Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012.T) and other Japanese train makers jumped after a report that Vietnam's state-run railway firm plans to use Japan's bullet train technology in building its high-speed railroad system.

Japan's near half-century experience with its "Shinkansen" bullet train system, with zero fatalities to date, puts the country's firms in a strong position to win orders in a global railway investment boom.

"This is not just about Vietnam. If Japan manages to export its Shinkansen technology to Vietnam, that would help it export it to others including bigger countries like Brazil and the United States," said Masayoshi Okamoto, head of dealing at Jujiya Securities.

"That's what investors are looking at with this development."

The Shinkansen technology will be used in a railway system that will connect the capital Hanoi in the north and Ho Chi Minh City in the south, the Nikkei business daily quoted Vietnam Railways Chief Executive Nguyen Huu Bang as saying in an interview. The project's cost is estimated at $56 billion and the government aims to start running high-speed trains in 2020, the Nikkei said.

Shares in Kawasaki Heavy rose 6.5 percent to 262 yen, while Kinki Sharyo Co Ltd (7122.T) gained 7 percent to 899 yen and Nippon Sharyo Ltd (7102.T) advanced 5.5 percent to 632 yen. The benchmark Nikkei average .N225 was up 0.7 percent.

Japanese manufacturers need to expand abroad as they face limited growth in rolling stock demand at home because of a mature train system and a shrinking population. (Reporting by Kiyoshi Takenaka; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)

(5) Vietnam plans Japanese bullet train link: media

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gv5p5C0gfrQ43JZcXx7lZ39KyfTg

(AFP) – August 13, 2009

TOKYO — Vietnam plans to use Japanese bullet train technology for a transnational rail link, the chief executive of state-owned Vietnam Railways Corp. was quoted Thursday as telling Japanese media.

The Vietnam government had already given basic approval for the Shinkansen system, although it still required financing and formal consent from the prime minister, Nguyen Huu Bang reportedly told the Nikkei business daily.

Funding for the 56-billion-dollar project remained riddled with uncertainties, the report said, with Hanoi seeking Japanese aid and funds from the World Bank and Asian Development Bank.

The 1,560-kilometre (970 mile) high-speed rail link would replace the current colonial-era train line connecting the capital Hanoi with the southern commercial hub of Ho Chi Minh City, a journey that now takes three days.

Vietnam hopes to launch the high-speed trains by 2020 and plans to start by building three sections, including a 90-kilometre stretch between the central coastal cities of Danang and Hue, seen as potentially most profitable.

The Nikkei said Japan's government and its railway industry, facing saturation domestically, want to expand the market overseas for Shinkansen trains and have high hopes for the potential in Vietnam.

However, the report added that cost estimates were still seen as inadequate, and that Japan was believed to have suggested that Vietnam postpone the planned opening of the high-speed rail service until 2036 or later.

Vietnam Railways Corp. in Hanoi declined to comment on the report.

(6) Japanese wholesale prices fall by a record 8.5%

Japanese prices in record decline

Page last updated at 08:45 GMT, Wednesday, 12 August 2009 09:45 UK

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8196812.stm

Japanese wholesale prices were down by a record 8.5% in July compared with a year earlier, highlighting the growing deflationary pressure in the economy.

Weak demand during the downturn and the fall in the price of oil have put downward pressure on prices.

On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates at 0.1% to try to boost consumer demand.

Revised figures also showed that industrial output rose 2.3% in June, down from the initial 2.4% estimate.

Recent data showed consumer prices had fallen by a record 1.7% in the year to the end of June.

Downward pressure

Although the impact of last summer's spike in the oil price will lessen towards the end of the year, analysts expect further falls in prices.

"We're going to see increasing downward price pressure from weak demand," said Takesh Minami at the Norinchukin Research Institute.

"The Bank of Japan has said that the country is not entering the deflationary spiral, so it won't ease monetary policy further. The bank will keep interest rates on hold at least until March 2011," he added.

Japan, the world's second largest economy, experienced a prolonged period of deflation in the 1990s, commonly referred to as "the lost decade".

But the central bank is confident that low interest rates and the stimulus packages it has already implemented will prevent deflation taking hold again.

However, in keeping interest rates on hold on Tuesday, the bank underlined its cautious outlook for the economy.

It said conditions in the world's second-largest economy had stopped worsening, but that unemployment would stay high and consumer spending low.

(7) Japan Should Scrap U.S. Debt; Dollar May Plummet - Akio Mikuni (Dec '08)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFgHlh.Dn4Lc

Japan Should Scrap U.S. Debt; Dollar May Plummet, Mikuni Says

By Stanley White and Shigeki Nozawa

Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Japan should write-off its holdings of Treasuries because the U.S. government will struggle to finance increasing debt levels needed to dig the economy out of recession, said Akio Mikuni, president of credit ratings agency Mikuni & Co.

The dollar may lose as much as 40 percent of its value to 50 yen or 60 yen from the current spot rate of 90.40 today in Tokyo unless Japan takes "drastic measures" to help bail out the U.S. economy, Mikuni said. Treasury yields, which are near record lows, may fall further without debt relief, making it difficult for the U.S. to borrow elsewhere, Mikuni said.

"It’s difficult for the U.S. to borrow its way out of this problem," Mikuni, 69, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television broadcast today. "Japan can help by extending debt cancellations."

The U.S. budget deficit may swell to at least $1 trillion this fiscal year as policy makers flood the country with $8.5 trillion through 23 different programs to combat the worst recession since the Great Depression. Japan is the world’s second-biggest foreign holder of Treasuries after China.

The U.S. government needs to spend on infrastructure to maintain job creation as it will take a long time for banks to recover from $1 trillion in credit-market losses worldwide, Mikuni said. The U.S. also needs to launch public works projects as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut to a range of zero to 0.25 percent on Dec. 16. won’t stimulate consumer spending because households are paying down debt, he said.

U.S. President-elect Barack Obama wants to create 3 million jobs over the next two years, more than the 2.5 million jobs originally planned, an aide said on Dec. 20. Obama takes office on Jan. 20.

Marshall Plan

Japan should also invest in U.S. roads and bridges to support personal spending and secure demand for its goods as a global recession crimps trade, Mikuni said.

Japan’s exports fell 26.7 percent in November from a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said on Dec. 22. That was the biggest decline on record as shipments of cars and electronics collapsed.

Combining debt waivers with infrastructure spending would be similar to the Marshall Plan that helped Europe rebuild after the destruction of World War II, Mikuni said.

"U.S. households simply won’t have the same access to credit that they’ve enjoyed in the past," he said. "Their demand for all products, including imports, will suffer unless something is done."

The plan was named after George Marshall, the U.S. secretary of state at the time, and provided more than $13 billion in grants and loans to European countries to support their import of U.S. goods and the rebuilding of their industries

Currency Reserves

The Japanese government could use a new Marshall Plan as a chance to shrink its $976.9 billion in foreign-exchange reserves, the world’s second-largest after China’s, and help reduce global economic imbalances, Mikuni said.

The amount of foreign assets held by the Japanese government and the private sector total around $7 trillion, Mikuni said.

Japan will also have to accept that a stronger yen is good for the country in order to reduce excessive trade surpluses and deficits, he said. The yen has appreciated 23 percent versus the dollar this year, the most since 1987, as the credit crisis prompted investors to flee riskier assets and repay loans in the Japanese currency.

"Japan’s economic model has been dependent on external demand since the Meiji Period" that began in 1868, Mikuni said. "The model where the U.S. relies on overseas borrowing to fuel its property market is over. A strong yen will spur Japanese domestic spending and reduce import prices, thereby increasing purchasing power."

To contact the reporter on this story: Stanley White in Tokyo at swhite28@bloomberg.net; Shigeki Nozawa in Tokyo at snozawa1@bloomberg.net Last Updated: December 23, 2008 22:22 ES

(8) Japan pays its nikkeijin to return to Brazil

Why I don't like Japan's repatriation plan for the nikkeijin

August 11, 2009 by matt

http://www.anarchyjapan.com/why-i-dont-japans-repatriation-plan-nikkeijin-584

I want to comment further on what some have called the "repatriation bribe" which has been offered to nikkeijin from Latin America. While some people are very familiar with this issue, some might not be, so I want to try and write a little bit of background myself first. I'm going to do this question and answer style. If you are already familiar with this issue you can just skip this part.

Who are the nikkeijin?

Nikkeijin literally means Japanese-lineage-person. It's a term that is mostly applied to those ancestors of Japanese who have gone overseas to live, mostly in North and South America. The term is especially used towards those Japanese ancestors who have returned to Japan via a special-long-term resident visa. Most nikkeijin now living in Japan are from Brazil, though some are some from Peru, China, and other countries as well.

Why are there so many Latin American nikkeijin living in Japan?

There are currently about 366,000 Latin American nikkeijin living in Japan. Most of them are Brazilians. In the late 1980's Japan was facing an acute labor shortage. The number of undocumented workers coming to Japan was rising at an alarming rate, while at the same time certain parts of the business community were petitioning the government to let in more unskilled labor. The government had been dragging its heels here because they were afraid that a large influx of foreigners would disrupt Japanese society. To a certain extent the prevalent ideology in Japan centers around being Japanese, and there is a certain level of xenophobia among conservative politicans. The idea of letting in foreigners, especially unskilled foreigners, troubled many in the government. Allowing the nikkeijin to come into Japan to work represented a potential way to allow in unskilled workers, but at the same time to keep Japan pure. It was really thought that because nikkeijin had Japanese blood that they would integrate better and faster and that they would be more reliable as workers.

Are the nikkeijin really unskilled workers?

Probably the vast majority of nikkeijin are from the middle class. There are even many professionals among them. They came to Japan to work because they could make more money working at unskilled jobs in Japan than they could working working at their profession in Brazil. So, they take a step down on the social ladder when they come to Japan.

Are the nikkeijin just temporary workers?

Some probably are. Certainly at first a lot of them were. They came to Japan, saved up a lot of money, and went back home. However, gradually at first, but now more and more so, nikkeijin are settling into their own communities in Japan. There are now many more women and children than there were initially.

Do nikkeijin fit in Japan?

That probably depends on who you ask and how you define fit in. In Brazil, most nikkeijin were middle class. In Japan, they're working class and a bit looked down on. They have not at all been absorbed into the community, but have begun forming their own communities. The fact that Brazilians are developing their own communities, complete with grocery stores, churches, schools and so on is no doubt viewed as problematic by government officials. I sincerely doubt any of them actually anticipated Brazilian communities springing up in Japan. Now that they have, I doubt they know what to do. I think the number of Brazilians who don't speak Japanese is well over 50%, that is the majority of them.

What kind of problems do nikkei have?

Again, depends on who you ask. A book could be written about this topic. One example of the type of problems being faced is education. The government has done next to nothing in regards to educating the children of nikkeijin. The result is that many Brazilians have taken matters into their own hands and there are now Brazilian schools in Japan. There are also many children who don't go to school. The national government is not happy about this and discusses it a lot, but as I understand it the national government has no clear plan to "fix" things. When Brazilian children do go to Japanese schools, often they just sit there. If they are young enough some of them pick up Japanese. In fact, a lot of nikkeijin children raised in Japan, actually do speak Japanese better than Portuguese. They would actually have trouble adapting if they went back to Brazil.

What kind of work do nikkei do in Japan?

They do the worst work there is. It's called 3K work, kitsui (difficult), kitanai (dirty) and kiken (dangerous). Japanese these days do not want to do this work, and often those who do are a bit looked down upon.

What is the current work situation for most Brazilians and other nikkeijin?

Japanese industry is supported at its *base* by a vast number of small factories that supply the larger factories with the materials they need. This is one element of Japan's famous just-in-time inventory system. In a mild economic downturn, a large factory might squeeze by without any layoffs, but these small factories will quickly take the brunt of the downturn. In the current downturn which is particularly bad, even large factories are feeling the brunt. The smaller factories are quickly laying off many Brazilians and in some areas unemployment has quickly reached scary proportions. I've seen rates reported at 40% or so in some areas. Here was an article ABC news did on the subject.

How are the communities responding?

I'm not entirely sure, and if someone can forward me to a good article, I'd like to read it. I get the impression that local governments, NPO, and even the Brazilian government have been doing quite a lot to try and try help nikkeijin, but are severely limited by budgetary constraints. All the relevant organizations are certainly feeling overwhelmed by the current economic downturn.

Okay, that ends my overly brief and overly simplified background material for this issue. Now the main issue I really want to discuss a government plan that was put forth last April in order to "assist" the nikkeijin.

The plan stated that if a nikkeijin had been trying to go home, but lacked the money, the government would help them by giving them ¥300,000 plus ¥200,000 per dependent. However there was a catch, for a period of time defined as toubun no aida (????), the recipient of the "aid" could not return to Japan. What does toubun no aida mean? Well, that was part of the problem, no one really knew. It probably means something like, "for the time being", but many news sources at first reported that the nikkeijin taking the money could not come back at all. This would include both the Asahi Shibun and the Nihon keizai Shinbun, which stated in clear language that those taking the money would not be allowed to return to Japan. In fact, Declan Murphy, a reliable source if ever there was one, noted the following in NBR's Japan forum, "It was stated quite explicitly at the public meetings in Hamamatsu (Honda-ville) that a) they could not return - ever, and b) neither could *any of their children currently in Japan*"

The foreign press eventually picked up the story and portrayed it as the Japanese government basically paying Brazilians to get out of the country. CNN, The New York Times, the BBC, the Economist, Time Magazine all joined in the criticism. Also the Japanese Brazilian paper, the Nikkey Shimbun was also very critical of the policy.

After facing heavy foreign criticism, the government altered the policy. While most newspapers reported the new policy as saying there would now only be a three year ban on people taking the money, this is not strictly correct. All that government really did was to say, "in principle the ban will only be in effect for three years, at which time we will carefully review the economic situation and give serious consideration to lifting the ban." If you follow any of the dialogs that took place in the Japanese diet this becomes very clear. Here's one place you might look to see what I am talking about. So despite the supposed revision it is still not clear when or if recipients of the "aid" will be able to return to Japan. There is no guarantee. ...