277 Kyrgyzstan and the Fergana Valley - crossroads of Central Asia, and hotspot of Muslim insurgency-

Kyrgyzstan and the Fergana Valley -  crossroads of Central Asia, and hotspot of Muslim insurgency

Most of the items below concern Kyrgyzstan and the Fergana Valley, a region we hear little about and for which there are few maps.

It's the crossroads of Central Asia - and on the Silk Road to Kashgar in Xinjiang, China.

As a hotspot of Muslim insurgency, it's of concern to China, Russia and the US.

A map of the Fergana Valley is at http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/53/163.html

We have our own reporter who knows the area, having lived in Uzbekistan - Eric Walberg.

(1) China: Sanctions on Iran are not a solution - Jerusalem Post
(2) Afghan killings spark anti-US protests
(3) Karzai threatens to join the Taliban if US & UN keep meddling
(4) Kyrgyzstan moves to shut US-run Manas air base
(5) Kyrgyzstan: Another colour revolution bites the dust - Eric Walberg
(6) Russia won't cut Western supplies through Kyrgyzstan, because wary of Muslim insurgency
(7) Kyrgyzstan: US reaps bitter harvest from 'Tulip' revolution -  M K Bhadrakumar
(8) Alexander established a city in Fergana Valley; Chinese & Arab-Muslim armies fought there
(9) Genghis Khan led his Mongol troops through the Fergana Valley
(10) Fergana valley - a mix of peoples (Persian, Turk, Mongol) but all Islamic

(1) China: Sanctions on Iran are not a solution - Jerusalem Post

http://www.jpost.com/International/Article.aspx?id=173019

China: Sanctions are not a solution

By JPOST.COM STAFF AND AP

13/04/2010 12:48

Beijing supports dual-track strategy; Iran: China wouldn't back US.

As US President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao prepared for the second day of the Washington nuclear summit Tuesday, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said sanctions were not a solution to the Iranian nuclear issue, according to AFP.

Following a meeting on the sidelines of the summit on Monday, the two leaders had stated that their respective countries “shared the same overall goal on the Iranian nuclear issue.” The statement followed months of action by the UN and Western powers to warm China toward the possibility of sanctions on Teheran.

Tuesday’s statement from Beijing reportedly called for a “dual-track strategy” in which diplomacy and dialogue with Teheran on the issue of its nuclear development and defiant rhetoric would continue as world leaders mull the possibility of sanctions.

"China always believes that dialogue and negotiation are the best way out for the issue. Pressure and sanctions cannot fundamentally solve it," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu was quoted as saying.

Meanwhile on Tuesday, Iran expressed uncertainty over the possibility that China would back new sanctions against it. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said Teheran did not consider Monday's joint statement by Obama and Hu to be Chinese "approval of the US stance and unfair actions."

He told reporters on Tuesday that "our interpretation is different," but did not elaborate.

The West fears Iran's nuclear program masks ambitions to obtain a nuclear weapon and is pushing for new sanctions. Teheran denies the charge

(2) Afghan killings spark anti-US protests

From: Sadanand, Nanjundiah (Physics Earth Sciences) <sadanand@mail.ccsu.edu> Date: 13.04.2010 01:01 PM

AP Monday, 12 April 2010

The Independent

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/afghan-killings-spark-antius-protests-1942507.html

International troops opend fire on a bus carrying Afghan civilians today, killing four people, an Afghan official said, setting off anti-American protests in a key southern city where coalition forces hope to rally the public for a coming offensive against the Taliban.

Today's shooting on the bus in Kandahar province's Zhari district left four dead and another 18 people wounded, Ayubi said. He said international forces took 12 of the wounded to a military hospital. Nato said it was investigating the shooting and planned to issue a statement later Monday.

A passenger interviewed at Kandahar hospital, Rozi Mohammad, said they had just left the Kandahar terminal when the bus pulled over to allow an American convoy to pass. Shooting broke out as the third or fourth American vehicle went by, he said, with gunfire coming from the direction of the convoy.

"They just suddenly opened fire, I don't know why. We had been stopped and after that I don't know what happened," said Mohammad, his left eye was swollen shut and his beard and clothing matted with blood. Doctors said he had suffered a head injury but did not yet know how serious it was.

Within hours, scores of Afghans had blocked the main highway out of Kandahar city with burning tires, chanting "Death to America," and calling for the downfall of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, himself a Kandahar native.

"The Americans are constantly killing our civilians and the government is not demanding an explanation," said resident Mohammad Razaq. "We demand justice from the Karzai government and the punishment of those soldiers responsible."

Nato and Afghan authorities declined to identify the international forces involved by nationality, although numerous eyewitnesses said they were American.

Karzai issued a statement condemning the attack and expressing condolences to the victims.

"This shooting involving a civilian bus violates Nato's commitment to safeguard civilian life," Karzai said.

(3) Karzai threatens to join the Taliban if US & UN keep meddling

From: lenczner <atoyuma@yahoo.com> Date: 11.04.2010 07:09 PM

No joke: Karzai threatens to join the Taliban

By Agence France-Presse

Monday, April 5th, 2010 -- 9:50 am

http://rawstory.com/rs/2010/0405/joke-karzai-threatens-join-taliban/

Afghan President Hamid Karzai has slammed Western backers for the second time in a week, accusing the United States of interference, The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday.

In a private meeting with up to 70 Afghan lawmakers Saturday, Karzai also warned that the Taliban insurgency could become a legitimate resistance movement if foreign meddling in Afghan affairs continues, the Journal said, citing participants in the talks.

During the talks, Karzai, whose government is supported by billions of dollars of Western aid and 126,000 foreign troops fighting the Taliban, said he would be compelled to join the insurgency himself if the parliament does not back his bid to take over Afghanistan's electoral watchdog.

His comments came less than a day after Karzai sought to defuse tensions over his earlier anti-foreigner outburst by assuring US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton he was committed to working with the United States.

Kabul and Washington said they were putting behind them the incident which saw Karzai publicly claim last week that foreigners orchestrated election fraud.

The latest remarks were sure to further erode an already fragile relationship. During a brief, unannounced visit to Kabul on Monday, Obama urged Karzai to rid his government of its pervasive corruption.

Karzai spent a large part of two and a half hours criticizing lawmakers for rejecting his efforts to wrestle control of the country's Electoral Complaints Commission from the United Nations, five of the legislators who gathered at the presidential palace told the Journal.

Western officials were said to be seeking the installation of a "puppet government" in Afghanistan, the lawmakers said.

"He said that the only reason that the Taliban and other insurgent groups are fighting the Afghan government is that they see foreigners having the final say in everything," one lawmaker told the newspaper.

The lawmakers quoted Karzai as saying the Taliban's "revolt will change to resistance" if the United States and its allies keep dictating how his government should run.

(4) Kyrgyzstan moves to shut US-run Manas air base
From: WVNS <ummyakoub@yahoo.com>  Date: 10.04.2010 08:02 AM

Friday, April 9, 2010

Press TV

http://alethonews.wordpress.com/2010/04/09/kyrgyzstan-moves-to-shut-us-run-manas-air-base/
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=122832&sectionid=351020406

Kyrgyzstan's new leaders have said they intend to remove a US
military base, which currently serves as the premier air mobility hub
for the US-led forces in Afghanistan, from their soil.

The interim government led by ex-foreign minister Roza Otunbayeva,
has said it wants the US base, Manas, closed down for security reasons.

The remarks came amid growing uncertainty over whether the new Kyrgyz
authorities would allow the US to use the base.

Russia, which itself maintains an air base at Kant, just 20 miles
from Manas, has been keen to block US military presence in the region.
Moscow has been increasingly concerned about US military's prolonged
presence in the geo-strategically important Region.

This is while the opposition has taken power and dissolved the
parliament. Otunbayeva has promised a new constitution and a
presidential election at some point in the next six months. She says a
care-taker government will serve as both presidency and parliament for
now.

The ousted president Kurmanbek Bakiyev has refused oppositions
demands to resign. Meanwhile, protestors in the capital Bishkek have
demolished and burned the house of the toppled president.

The opposition claims to be in full control of the capital, the armed
forces and the media. Earlier, the interim government allowed police to use firearms and shoot looters across the Kyrgyz capital. Wednesday's unrest that toppled the government claimed at least 75 lives with over 1000 others injured.

(5) Kyrgyzstan: Another colour revolution bites the dust - Eric Walberg

From: efgh1951 <efgh1951@yahoo.com> Date: 14.04.2010 03:48 PM

Kyrgyzstan: Another colour revolution bites the dust

So what's the real story behind the coup in Kyrgyzstan ? asks Eric Walberg

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=18637
http://ericwalberg.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=248

Monday, 12 April 2010 15:11

The pretense that a president of a modest country like Kyrgyzstan can playing big league politics is shed with the ouster of the tulip revolutionary president Kurmanbek Bakiyev, after last week's riots in the capital Bishkek that left 81 dead and government buildings and Bakiyev's various houses trashed.

Bakiyev tried to have the best of both big power worlds, last year brashly threatening to close the US airbase, vital to the war in Afghanistan, after signing a cushy aid deal with Russia, and then reversing himself when the US agreed to more than triple the rent to $60 million a year and kick in another$100m in aid. As a result he lost the trust of both, and found himself bereft when the going got tough last week, as riots exactly like those that swept him to power erupted.

It was the US that was there in 2005 to help him usher in a new era of democracy and freedom, the "Tulip Revolution", but this time, it was Russia who was there to help the interim government coalition headed by opposition leader and former foreign minister Roza Otunbayeva pick up the pieces. As Otunbayeva looks to Kyrgyzstan's traditional support for help extricating itself from a potential failed-state situation, cowed and frightened US strategists are already advocating trying to convince the Russians that the US has no long-term plans for the region, and that they can work together. Recognising the obvious, writes Eric McGlinchey in the New York Times,"Kyrgyzstan is in Russia's backyard, and the fact that we depend on our airbase there for our Afghan war doesn't change that. Presenting a united front with Russia, however, would help Washington keep its airbase and avoid another bidding war."

This coup follows the same logic as the more dignified rejection of the Orange Revolution in Ukraine in February, and has given a new lease on life to Georgian opposition politicians,who vow they will follow the Kyrgyz example if their rose revolutionary president continues to persecute them and spout his anti-Russian venom.Indeed, the whole US strategy in ex-Sovietistan seems to be unraveling,with Uzbekistan still out in the cold for its extreme human rights abuses, and the recent inauguration in February of Turkmenistan's new gas pipeline to China.

Reversing Bakiyev's flip-flop, Otunbayeva first indicated the US base would remain open, then hours later, sent shock waves through the US political establishment by reversing herself and saying it would be closed "for security reasons". The agreement was renewed last June and is due for renewal in July this year. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton immediately telephoned Otunbayeva and sent Assistant Secretary of State Robert Blake to Bishkek, who announced with relief that the base would remain open after all.

But, unlike Bakiyev, Otunbayeva is no crafty politician out to fill her and her family's pockets. While the former put his son Maxim in charge of negotiating the lucrative rental deal with the Americans last year (just where did the $160m go?) and set him up as head of the new national Central Agency for Development, Investment, and Innovation, Otunbayeva is above the corrupt clan-based politics of her predecessors. A graduate of Moscow State University and former head of Kyrgyz State National University philosophy faculty, she was foreign minister under both Askar Akayev and Bakiyev. She served as the first Kyrgyz ambassador to the US and Canada, and later the UK, and in 2007, was elected to parliament on the candidate list of the Social Democratic Party,becoming head of the opposition SDP in October 2009.

She visited Moscow twice this year, in January and March, and has forged close links with the United Russia Party. Her first formal talks as interim president were with Putin. Her flop-flip rather reflects the serious strain that the pushy US has put on Kyrgyz society, which until 9/11 was a sleep backwater which admired and was grateful to Russia for its security and economic well-being. There can be no doubt that the Kyrgyz people would much prefer good relations with Russia than the US. The base has provided nothing to the surrounding community except for the transitting soldiers' purchase of alcohol and their soliciting of prostitutes.

For all his antidemocratic behaviour, Bakiyev's threat to close the base last year was in response to public pressure. Locals were furious that a US solider killed an unarmed Kyrgyz outside the base and was whisked back to the US without any repercussions, much like the recently exposed case of US soldiers in a helicopter who gunning down two unarmed Reuters news staff in Baghdad, but who were cleared by a military investigation. This resentment and the instability it encourages are what Otunbayeva was alluding to in her terse phrase "security reasons".

So, the question on everyone's lips: did Russia pull the strings this time, tit for tat? True, there was little love lost between Putin and Bakiyev after the latter reneged on his promise to close the American base last year. Bakiyev's erratic behaviour in the past two years certainly irritated the Russians. Apart from the issue of the US base, ties between the Kremlin and Bakiyev's government had deteriorated sharply in recent months, in part because of the government's increasingly anti-Russian stance, including the blocking of Russian-language websites and increased discrimination facing Russian businessmen. Coincidentally,Russia imposed duties on energy exports to Kyrgyzstan on 1 April.

When Otunbayeva suggested the base would be closed, there were cries that the Kremlin was behind the coup. But this speculation was nixed by Obama himself. "The people that are allegedly running Kyrgyzstan ...these are all people we've had contact with for many years. This is not some anti-American coup, that we know for sure," assured Michael McFaul, Obama's senior director for Russian affairs, as Obama and Medvedev were smiling for the cameras in Prague in their nuclear disarmament moment. He also dismissed the immediate assumption that it was "some sponsored-by-the-Russians coup," claiming -- appropriately for the occasion -- that cooperation over Kyrgyzstan was another sign of improved US-Russia relations.

Diligence LLC analyst Nick Day, "Russia is going to dominate Kyrgyzstan and that means problems for the US." Yes, and so what? Russia is just a heart-beat away from events throughout the ex-Soviet Union by definition. Russians and Russian-sympathisers come with the territory.In early March, a member of the Council of Elders and head of the Pensioners' Party, Omurbek Umetaliev, said, "We believe it is unacceptable to allow the existence on this limited territory of military bases from two leading world powers, which have conflicting positions on many issues of international politics. Although the presence of a Russian military base in Kyrgyzstan is historically justified, the military presence of the US and NATO countries is a threat to our national interests."

True, even the threat to close the base is a blow to US imperial strategy in Eurasia, especially its surge in Afghanistan, which would be seriously jeopardised without its Manas air base. The US resupplies 40 per cent of forward operating bases in Afghanistan by air because the Taliban control the main roads. 1,500 US troops transit Manas each day --50,000 in the past month, with 1,200 permanently stationed there. Because of attacks on its supply convoys travelling through Pakistan, the Pentagon wants to shift much of its resupply effort to its new Northern Distribution Network, which runs through Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

Paul Quinn-Judge, Central Asia director of the International Crisis Group -- reporting from Manas --said the fear was that such stepped-up US shipping will lead to attacks by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and the Islamic Jihad Union, groups which have a loyal following in the restive Ferghana valley, which is divided among those very Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, and has witnessed more than one uprising in the recent past. "The problem with the Northern Distribution Network is obvious," Quinn-Judge says. "It turns Central Asia into a part of the theatre of war."

Confusion over the status of the US base will be top on United States President Barack Obama's crammed agenda now and he would do well to look further than the next wilted flower coup. "In Kyrgyzstan there should be only one base -- Russian,"a senior Russian official told reporters icily in Prague. "Russia will use this as a lever in negotiations with America," frets Day.

But another way to look at this is that this is a golden opportunity for Obama to definitively reverse the cowboy politics of Bush and the neocons, to build some real bridges with Russia, the country which will remain vital to Kyrgyzstan whatever geopolitical phantasms Washington has in mind. The delicious irony in the Kyrgyz coup is that as Medvedev and Obama were posing in Prague, where Russia basically acceded to US missile defence diktat, geopolitical inertia in Kyrgyzstan was doing Russia's work for it, scuttling US Eurasian plans, and putting the cards back in Russia's hands.

And what is this nonsense about how "vital" this base is to the US? It's been there ten years. Just how long does it expect to stay? Could the answer be "For ever"? The current Kyrgyz line is that the agreement will be reviewed to make sure it isn't "against the interests of the people or for bribes", government spokesman Almazbek Atambayev said after a visit to Moscow. "The United States plans to withdraw troops from Afghanistan next year. We will approach the transit centre issue in a civilised way and resolve it with the US leadership." So the US probably has another year there with grudging Russian approval.

Voluntarily leaving next summer would be the best advertisement to the world, and Russia in particular, that Obama represents a new, less belligerent US.The writing is on the wall: it is only a matter of months, a year at most, till Manas becomes a Russian base, and the sooner the US accepts the obvious, the better. Both Moscow and Washington have a common goal to preserve stability in the region, and given Moscow's acquiesence to US-NATO transit of its territory to service the war in Afghanistan, this would automatically extend to a now-respectful US's use of the soon-to-be Russian base in Manas. 

Already the echoes of post-Vietnam realism in US politics, detente with the "enemy", can be detected in McFaul's words. This was the last period when a subdued US pursued sensible, even peaceful, foreign policies, having accepted defeat in its criminal war against Vietnam, culminating in the push by Carter to force the Israelis to withdraw from Sinai and make peace, however grudging, with at least one neighbour. The world could do with more Kyrgyz coups. ***

Eric Walberg writes for Al-Ahram Weekly http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/ You can reach him at http://ericwalberg.com/

(6) Russia won't cut Western supplies through Kyrgyzstan, because wary of Muslim insurgency

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/LD13Ag01.html

Apr 13, 2010

Russian concerns weigh heavily

By Brian M Downing

The precise nature and inspiration of the uprising last week in the remote Central Asian republic of Kyrgyzstan is not presently known. Few, however, doubt that Russia has supported President Kurmanbek Bakiyev's ouster and will benefit from the government that is coalescing in Bishkek. Russia quickly recognized the new government and even sent a modest number of paratroopers to its military facility in the country.

Roza Otunbayeva, the head of the provisional government, is a former Communist Party secretary, though unlikely to be an apparatchik with lingering loyalties to the Kremlin, regardless of who presently occupies it. Russia will almost certainly seek to turn events to its advantage, from the Baltic to the Chinese frontier.

Central Asian republics, then and now

The peoples of the vast region from the Caspian to Mongolia have never existed as nation states, only as amorphous khanates, transient empires, and hapless parts of tsarist and Soviet empires. During the Leonid Brezhnev era (1964-1982), Central Asian republics were governed by indigenous autocrats, tied to Moscow but standing atop lucrative patronage networks linking the government to various clans and tribes.

When Mikhail Gorbachev (1990-1991) sought to reform the Central Asian governments, the autocrats resisted with ethnic/national sentiments. Amid the coup that briefly ousted Gorbachev, they invoked those same sentiments to legitimize independence. Former party vassals and their functionaries became new governments. Autocracy and patronage networks persisted, with occasional eruptions and pretenses of democracy.

Dispositions toward Russia and the United States varied. In Eastern Europe, most former Soviet states and satellites feared an eventual Russian resurgence and raced to align themselves with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and integrate into the European Union - assurances of independence, the states calculated.

Central Asia displays variation in relations to Moscow and Washington. Some new states see Russia as an important trade partner, as their economies had been integrated since the 19th century. Others are cordial with both power centers while still others, such as Turkmenistan, maintain a staunchly neutral stance.

Kyrgyzstan relies on Russia for a considerable portion of its commerce, yet in recent years it has leaned toward the US, granting it use of Manas airfield to support operations in Afghanistan. About 20% of Western logistics flow through Kyrgyzstan. Russian pressure to restrict access to Manas in recent years led only to more generous emoluments from the US and the airfield remained open. The US pays an annual rent of about US$60 million to use the base.

The war in Afghanistan

The US and NATO are naturally fearful that events in Kyrgyzstan will affect the war against the Taliban. National security institutions often overstate dangers. The consequences of the change of government in Bishkek, however, are unlikely to be significant.

Materiel coming into Afghanistan from Pakistan is intermittently attacked in the tribal regions near the Khyber Pass and convoys entering from the north are increasingly attacked as they enter Kunduz province - a Pashtun area that has seen stronger insurgent activity in the past year. The southern port city of Karachi has a large Pashtun refugee population that could cause supply woes at the main port of entry.

This presents Russia with the opportunity to choke off Western supplies coming through Kyrgyzstan. As appealing as avenging its loss in Afghanistan 20 years ago might appear, Russia has much to fear about a resurgent Taliban spreading militancy across Central Asia then into Russian regions with significant Islamic populations. Unlikely as a new caliphate is, the fear will be augmented by national security institutions in a country whose political culture has been greatly shaped by foreign invasions over the centuries.

Russia and other members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO - China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) are deeply concerned by regional militancy. The SCO sees militancy growing in the Fergana Valley, which cuts across Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and is thought to be an infiltration route into eastern Afghanistan. Accordingly, SCO countries play supportive roles in Afghanistan by training its national police, especially in the northern areas with Turkic populations.

Russia worries about an inflow of foreign fighters into contested parts of Muslim Russia, such as Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetia. The struggles in those regions enjoy prominence in al-Qaeda propaganda and that of kindred groups, but those insurgencies are mainly indigenous. Nonetheless, success in Afghanistan could lead to greater ambitions and more foreign volunteers to an area through which Caspian oil flows.

NATO and Eastern Europe

Russia is unlikely to choke off supply lines into Afghanistan in a significant, long-term manner; it has far more to lose from an insurgent victory than the US. Russian and US strategic goals in Central Asia do not conflict nearly as greatly as they do in Eastern Europe.

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 led to new states and new security concerns. Despite assurances from NATO that it would not expand into these areas, it did just that. The import of national security institutions and political culture recur. Americans who recognize the cultural legacy of the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 and the September 11, 2001, attacks might well ponder the legacy of Russia’s loss of 27 million dead in World War II, affording insight into Russia’s present-day concerns along its western and southern periphery.

Russia will seek to increase its influence in Kyrgyzstan and use it in the more important matter of NATO forces in Eastern Europe. Temporary and partial restrictions of access are more likely than shutdown; as noted, that could harm Russia more than it would the US. In any event, the US will likely be able to maintain access to Manas airfield by boosting its payments to Kyrgyzstan, as it did in recent years. US finances are strained as never before, but emoluments to Bishkek will be found.

Russian strategy here is long term - and less blunt than many of the hare-brained schemes of Soviet policymakers. Russia seeks to impress on the West that it is an important partner in Central Asia and that its concerns about NATO expansion cannot go unaddressed any longer.

The upshot, however, could be sharper conflict; geopolitical games often get out of hand. But recent agreements by Washington and Moscow on missile defense and arms reductions have provided a basis for greater dialog and for cooperation in avoiding another cold war that neither state can afford.

Brian M Downing is a political/military analyst and the author of The Military Revolution and Political Change and The Paths of Glory: War and Social Change in America from the Great War to Vietnam. He can be reached at brianmdowning@gmail.com.

(7) Kyrgyzstan: US reaps bitter harvest from 'Tulip' revolution -  M K Bhadrakumar

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/LD10Ag01.html

Apr 10, 2010

US reaps bitter harvest from 'Tulip' revolution

By M K Bhadrakumar

BEIJING - This is not how color revolutions are supposed to turn out. In the Ukraine, the "Orange" revolution of 2004 has had a slow painful death. In Georgia, the "Rose" revolution of 2003 seems to be in the throes of what increasingly appears to be a terminal illness.

Now in Kyrgyzstan, the "Tulip" revolution of 2005 is taking another most unforeseen turn. It is mutating and in the process something terrible is happening to its DNA. A color revolution against a regime backed by the United States was not considered possible until this week. Indeed, how could such a thing happen, when it was the US that invented color revolutions to effect regime change in countries outside its sphere of influence?

What can one call the color revolution in Kyrgyzstan this week? No one has yet thought up a name. Usually, the US sponsors have a name readily available. Last year in Iran it was supposed to have been the "Twitter" revolution.

It is highly unlikely that President Kurmanbek Bakiyev will retain his job. Aside from Washington, no major capital is demanding reconciliation between him and the Kyrgyz revolutionaries.

Evidently, there has been a massive breakdown in US diplomacy in Central Asia. Things were going rather well lately until this setback. For the first time it seemed Washington had succeeded in the Great Game by getting a grip on the Kyrgyz regime, though the achievement involved a cold-blooded jettisoning of all norms of democracy, human rights and rule of law that the US commonly champions. By all accounts, Washington just bought up the Bakiyev family lock stock and barrel, overlooking its controversial record of misuse of office.

According to various estimates, the Bakiyev family became a huge beneficiary of contracts dished out by the Pentagon ostensibly for providing supplies to the US air base in Manas near the Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek.

This is a practice that the US fine-tuned in Afghanistan, originally to patronize and bring on board important political personalities on the fractured Afghan chessboard. In Kyrgyzstan, the game plan was relatively simple, as there were not many people to be patronized. Some estimates put the figure that the Pentagon awarded last year to businesses owned by members of the Bakiyev family as US$80 million.

Just one look at the map of Central Asia shows why the US determined that $80 million annually was a small price to pay to establish its predominance in Kyrgyzstan. The country is one of the most valuable pieces of real estate in the geopolitics of the region.

Kyrgyzstan borders China's Xinjiang Autonomous Region. Some time ago there was a whispering campaign which said the Manas base, projected as the main supply base for US troops in Afghanistan, had highly sophisticated electronic devices installed by the Pentagon that could "peep" into Xinjiang where key Chinese missile sites are located.

Besides, a sizeable Uyghur community lives in Kyrgyzstan and almost 100,000 ethnic Kyrgyz live in Xinjiang. Kyrgyzstan surely holds the potential to be a base camp for masterminding activities aimed at destabilizing the situation in Xinjiang.

Furthermore, southern Kyrgyzstan lies adjacent to the Ferghana Valley, which is historically the cradle of Islamist radicalism in the region. The militant groups based in Afghanistan and Pakistan often transit through Kyrgyzstan while heading for the Ferghana Valley. In the Andijan riots in Uzbekistan in 2005, militant elements based in southern Kyrgyzstan most certainly played a major role.

At a time when the Afghan endgame is increasingly in sight, involving the US's reconciliation with the Taliban in some form or the other, Kyrgyzstan assumes the nature of a pivotal state in any US strategy toward the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) into Central Asia.

To put it differently, for any US strategy to use political Islam to bring about regime change in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan in the future, Kyrgyzstan would be extremely valuable. Like Georgia in the Caucasus, Kyrgyzstan's significance lies not in its natural resources such as oil or natural gas, but in its extraordinary geographical location, which enables it to modulate regional politics.

A challenge lies ahead for US diplomacy in the weeks and months ahead. Although Roza Otunbayeva, the head of the interim government, said on Thursday that as far as bases were concerned "the status quo would remain", this could change at any moment. At the least, the annual rent of about $60 million the US pays to use the base could be renegotiated.

Otunbayeva was foreign minister before the "Tulip" revolution and she also served in various positions during the Soviet era. Kyrgyzstan is also home to a Russian base. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin was the first world leader to recognize the legitimacy of the new government in Bishkek. The affinity to Moscow is clear.

Also in doubt is whether the new regime in Bishkek will want to pursue Washington's military assistance, especially the setting up of a counter-terrorism center in the southern city of Batken near the Ferghana Valley. This includes the stationing of American military advisors on Kyrgyz soil, not far from the Chinese border.

Clearly, the US pressed ahead too rashly with its diplomacy. On the one hand, it came down from its high pedestal of championing the cause of democracy, rule of law and good governance by backing Bakiyev, whose rule lately had become notorious for corruption, cronyism and authoritarian practices, as well as serious economic mismanagement. (It will look cynical indeed if Washington once again tries to paint itself as a champion of democratic values in the Central Asian region.)

On the other hand, US diplomacy has seriously destabilized Kyrgyzstan. From its position as a relatively stable country in the region as of 2005, when the "Tulip" revolution erupted, it has now sunk to the bottom of the table for political stability, dropping below Tajikistan. An entire arc stretching from Pakistan and Afghanistan to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan has now become highly volatile.

In all likelihood, we have not heard the end of the story of this week's riots in Kyrgyzstan in which about 40 people were killed and 400 others injured. The old north-south divide in Kyrgyzstan has reappeared and it is significant that Bakiyev fled from Bishkek, reportedly to his power base in the southern city of Osh. The south is predominately ethnic Uzbek. Some very astute political leadership is needed in Bishkek in the dangerous times ahead if Kyrgyzstan's ethnic divide were not to lead to a breakdown of the country's unity. The country's population is about 65% Kyrgyz (Sunni Muslim), with about 14% ethnic Uzbek.

Besides, the Islamists are waiting in the wings to take advantage of any such catastrophic slide. The socio-economic situation in Kyrgyzstan already looks very grim. All the ingredients of protracted internecine strife are available. Kyrgyzstan is dangerously sliding toward becoming the first "failing state" in the post-Soviet space.

The biggest danger is that the instability may seep into the Ferghana Valley and affect Uzbekistan. There is a hidden volcano there in an unresolved question of nationality that lurks just below the surface, with the sizeable ethnic Uzbek population in southern Kyrgyzstan at odds with the local ethnic Kyrgyz community.

It remains unclear whether there has been any form of outside help for the Kyrgyz opposition. But there is a touch of irony that the regime change in Bishkek took place on the same day that US President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart President Dmitry Medvedev met at Prague Castle. On Thursday, they signed the first major US-Russia arms control pact of the post-Cold War era, which is supposed to set in motion the "reset" of relations between the two countries.

Indeed, the first litmus test of "reset" might be Obama seeking Medvedev's help to make sure the US does not get evicted from Manas, at least until his AfPak policy reaches its turning point in July 2011, when the first drawdown of US troops is expected. If Obama were to take Medvedev's help, color revolutions as such would have in essence become a common heritage of the US and Russia. One side sows the seeds and the other side reaps the harvest - and vice versa.

But it will be a bitter pill for Washington to swallow. The Russians have all along mentioned their special interests in the former Soviet republics and the US has been adamant that it will not concede any acknowledgement of Moscow's privileges. Now to seek Moscow's helping hand to retain its influence in Kyrgyzstan will be a virtual about-turn for Washington. Also, Moscow is sure to expect certain basic assurances with regard to the creeping NATO expansion into the Caucasus and Central Asia.

As the recent first-ever regional tour of Central Asia by the US's special representative for Afghanistan, Richard Holbrooke, testified, Washington was just about to accelerate the process of expanding the scope of AfPak into the strategic region bordering Russia and China. Holbrooke ominously spoke of an al-Qaeda threat to Central Asia, suggesting that NATO had a role to play in the region in its capacity as the only viable security organization that could take on such a high-risk enterprise of chasing Osama bin Laden in the steppes and the killer deserts of Kizil Kum and Kara Kum.

Holbrooke's tour - followed immediately after by the intensive two-day consultations in Bishkek by the US Central Command chief, David Petraeus - didn't, conceivably, go unnoticed in the concerned regional capitals. But as of now, the US's entire future strategy in Central Asia is up in the air.

Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.

(8) Alexander established a city in Fergana Valley; Chinese & Arab-Muslim armies fought there

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fergana_Valley

Fergana Valley

The Fergana Valley or Farghana Valley is a region in Central Asia spreading across eastern Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Contents

Geography and geology

The most important part of the province is a rich and fertile valley, in an altitude of 1200 to 1,500 ft (457 m) (400 to 500 m), opening towards the southwest. The valley owes its fertility to two rivers, the Naryn and the Kara Darya, which unite in the valley, near Namangan, to form the Syr Darya. Numerous other tributaries of these rivers exist in the valley including the Sokh River. The streams, and their numerous mountain effluents, not only supply water for irrigation, but also bring down vast quantities of sand, which is deposited alongside their courses, more especially alongside the Syr Darya where it cuts its way through the Khojent-Ajar ridge, forming there the Karakchikum. This expanse of moving sands, covering an area of 750 mi?, under the influence of south-west winds, encroaches upon the agricultural districts. The Fergana Valley is a very big open wide space that is very good for farming. It is home to many cattle, and is all green. This valley is a very beautiful place and is very good for vacation. It is located in Kyrgyzstan. The smallest "stan" out of the five. ...

The climate of this valley is dry and warm. In March the temperature reaches 20 °C (68 °F), and then rapidly rises to 35 °C (95 °F) in June, July and August. During the five months following April no rain falls, but it begins again in October. Snow and frost, down to -20 °C (-4 °F) occur in December and January.

History

Hellenistic settlement

{caption} Probable Greek soldier in the Sampul tapestry, woollen wall hanging, 3rd-2nd century BCE, Sampul, Urumqi Xinjiang Museum. {end}

The ancient capital of Ferghana was Akhsikat. In 329 BCE, Alexander the Great founded a Greek settlement with the city of Alexandria Eschate "The Furthest", in the southwestern part of the Ferghana valley, on the southern bank of the river Syr Darya (ancient Jaxartes), at the location of the modern city of Khujand, in the state of Tajikistan.

After 250 BCE, the city probably remained in contact with the Greco-Bactrian Kingdom centered on Bactria, especially when the Greco-Bactrian king Euthydemus extended his control to Sogdiana. There are indications that from Alexandria Eschate the Greco-Bactrians may have led expeditions as far as Kashgar and Ürümqi in Chinese Turkestan, leading to the first known contacts between China and the West around 220 BCE. Several statuettes and representations of Greek soldiers have been found north of the Tien Shan, on the doorstep to China, and are today on display in the Xinjiang museum at Urumqi (Boardman). Of the Greco-Bactrians, the Greek historian Strabo too writes that:

"they extended their empire even as far as the Seres (Chinese) and the Phryni" (Strabo, XI.XI.I ).

Interaction with China

In the history of the Han Dynasty, based on the travels of Zhang Qian about 126 BCE, the region of Ferghana is presented as the country of the Dayuan (Ta-Yuan), possibly descendants of the Greeks colonists (Da Yuan might be a transliteration of "Great Ionians"). Dayuan was renowned for its Heavenly Horses which the Chinese tried to obtain with little success until they waged war against them in 104 BCE.

The Dayuan were identified by the Chinese as unusual in features, with a sophisticated urban civilization, similar to that of the Bactrians and Parthians: "The Son of Heaven on hearing all this reasoned thus: Ferghana (Dayuan) and the possessions of Bactria and Parthia are large countries, full of rare things, with a population living in fixed abodes and given to occupations somewhat identical with those of the Chinese people, but with weak armies, and placing great value on the rich produce of China" (Hou Han Shu).

Agricultural activities of the Dayuan reported by Zhang Qian included growing of grain and grapes (for wine).[1] The area of Ferghana was thus the theater of the first major interaction between an urbanized culture speaking Indo-European languages and the Chinese civilization, which led to the opening up the Silk Road from the 1st century BCE.

Islamic influence

During the 8th century CE, Ferghana was the location of fierce rivalry between the Tang Dynasty of China and the expansion of Muslim power, leading to the Battle of Talas in 751, which marked the victory of Islam and the disengagement of China from Central Asia. Two antecedent battles in 715 and 717 had seen the Chinese to prevail over Arab forces.[2]

Located on the Northern Silk Road, the Ferghana played a significant part in the flowering of medieval Central Asian Islam. Its most famous son is Babur, famous conqueror and founder of the Mughal Empire in India. Islamic prosylytizers from the Ferghana valley such as al-Firghani ??, al-Andijani ???, al-Namangani ???, al-Khojandi ?? spread Islam into parts of present-day Russia, China, and South Asia[3].

Russian Empire

Ferghana, or Fergana was a province of Russian Turkestan, formed in 1876 out of the former khanate of Kokand (see Kokand). It was bounded by the provinces of Syr-darya on the N. and N.W., Samarkand on the W., and Zhetysu on the N.E., by Chinese Turkestan (Kashgaria) on the E., and by Bukhara and Afghanistan on the S. Its southern limits, on the Pamirs, were fixed by an Anglo-Russian commission in 1885, from Zorkul (Victoria Lake) to the Chinese frontier; and Khignan, Roshan and Wakhan were assigned to Bokhara in exchange for part of Darvaz (on the left bank of the Panj), which was given to Afghanistan. The area amounted to some 53,000 km2 (20,463 sq mi), of which 17,600 km2 (6,795 sq mi) are on the Pamirs.

The Soviet and post-Soviet periods

... The whole region was part of a single economy geared to cotton production on a massive scale and the over-arching political structures meant that crossing borders was not a problem. Since 1991 this has changed, for the worse. Uzbekistan regularly closes its borders with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan ... May 2005 unrest in Uzbekistan in which hundreds of protestors were killed by troops.

Agriculture

In Tsarist times, out of some 3,000,000 acres (1,214,057 ha) (12,000 km?) of cultivated land, about two thirds were under constant irrigation and the remaining third under partial irrigation. The soil was considered by the author of the 1911 Britannica article to be admirably cultivated, the principal crops having been wheat, rice, barley, maize, millet, lucerne, tobacco, vegetables and fruit. Gardening was conducted with a high degree of skill and success. Large numbers of horses, cattle and sheep were kept, and a good many camels are bred. Over 17,000 acres (6,880 ha) (69 km?) were planted with vines, and some 350,000 acres (141,640 ha) (1,400 km?) were under cotton. Nearly 1,000,000 acres (404,686 ha) (4,000 km?) were covered with forests. The government maintained a forestry farm at Marghelan, from which 120,000 to 200,000 young trees were distributed free every year amongst the inhabitants of the province.

Silkworm breeding, formerly a prosperous industry, had decayed, despite the encouragement of a state farm at New Marghelan.

In the Soviet period this picture changed, as the forests were destroyed and opened to irrigation and a cotton monoculture introduced at the expense of the varied food and fodder crops described above. Central Asia's food was imported from Siberia along the new Turkestan-Siberia Railway, and vast areas, including almost all of Ferghana, turned over exclusively to the production of this lucrative cash-crop. Today a balance is slowly returning to agriculture in Uzbekistan, but the soil is often exhausted by over-use and poisoned by too many chemical fertilisers. While still rich and fertile, it is still uncertain if the Ferghana Valley will ever again attain the degree of prosperity and varied cultivation described above. ...

Until the late 19th century Ferghana, like everywhere else in Central Asia, was dependent on the camel, horse and donkey for transport, while roads were few and bad. The Russians built a trakt or post-road linking Andijan, Kokand, Margilan and Khodjend with Samarkand and Tashkent in the early 1870s. A new impulse was given to trade by the extension (1898) of the Transcaspian railway into Ferghana as far as Andijan, and by the opening of the Orenburg-Tashkent or Trans-Aral Railway in (1906).

Until Soviet times and the construction of the Pamir Highway from Osh to Khorog in the 1920s the routes to Kashgaria and the Pamirs were mere bridle-paths over the mountains, crossing them by lofty passes. ...

This page was last modified on 29 March 2010 at 00:39.

(9) Genghis Khan led his Mongol troops through the Fergana Valley

http://www.eastlinetour.com/fergana/index.html

Among other valley cities Fergana is believed to be one of the most Uzbek ancient cities. Its construction was begun simultaneously as Naw Margilon (New Margilan) - a colonial appendage of nearby Margilan. For some time it had the name " Sim " (telephone wire) and then - Skobelev. The name Fergana appeared in 1920. Maple trees casting shadow on the streets, and also buildings of blue-sky color makes the city very attractive.

The Fergana Valley, consisting partly of the very fertile Karakalpak steppe and partly of desert land, is drained by the Syr Darya River and by numerous mountain streams, which are fed by snowfields and glaciers in the mountains. A dense irrigation network is linked by the Great Fergana and South Fergana canals. Major cities of the valley include Fergana, Kokand, Andijan, and Namangan, in Uzbekistan; Khudjand, in Tajikistan; and Osh, in Kyrgyzstan; many of them are connected by a circular rail line, which also has spurs serving the mining settlements on the valley's periphery. The Fergana Valley is one of Central Asia's most densely populated agricultural and industrial areas. Cotton fields, orchards, vineyards, walnut groves, and mulberry tree plantations (for silk) cover the region, which is one of the world's oldest cultivated areas. Along the fringes of the valley are deposits of oil, natural gas, and iron ore. Cotton and silk milling and the manufacture of chemicals and cement are among the valley's important industries. According to ancient Chinese sources, the Fergana Valley was a major center of Central Asia as early as the 4th cent. BC The introduction of silk raising from China, the development of cotton cultivation, and its favorable location astride the silk route between China and the Mediterranean stimulated the valley's growth.

The Arabs, following the path of earlier invaders, occupied the valley in the 8th century and introduced Islam. The region was held in the 9th and 10th century by the Persian Samanid dynasty, in the 12th century by the Seljuk Turks of Khorezm, and in the 14th century by the Mongols under Genghis Khan. The valley later belonged to the empire of Timur and his successors: the Timurids.

Early in the 16th century, it was over-run by the Uzbeks, who established the Khanate of Kokand. The opening of the sea route to East Asia around that time led to the decline of the prosperous caravan trade through the valley. Russian conquest of the Fergana Valley was completed in 1876; the region was then made part of a much larger unit called Fergana, which was a province of Russian Turkistan. During the Russian civil war, the valley was the center of the anti-Bolshevik Autonomous Turkistan Government, with Kokand as its capital. The crowded conditions in the valley contributed to ethnic violence in 1989-90, and Fergana has been one of the hot spots of post-USSR in Central Asia.

The most attractive sight in Fergana is its market. Together with Uzbek vendors, Korean and Russian vendors sell their domestic spices.

(10) Fergana valley - a mix of peoples (Persian, Turk, Mongol) but all Islamic
http://www.ngdtj.com/Geotourism.asp?Subject=Geoturism

The Pamirs mark the southern boundary of Central Asia, the most fascinating region in the Eurasian continent and the least developed one from a touristic point of view. Separated from Russia by the boundless Kazakhstan steppe and surrounded by deserts, Central Asia was for centuries the crossroads for the trade routes between East and West. it was here that already in the 2nd century B.C. the nomad populations traced the route that would later be called the Silk Road. Here the legendary Genghis Khan led his Mongol troops in his devastating invasions of parts of Europe; here reigned his successor Tamerlane, so famous for his cruelty as well as for the great works of art created under his rule, such as the monuments in Samarkand, the capital of his empire. The Russian tsars conquered these regions only in the early 1800s, but they never succeeded in influencing the local culture to any extent. Then came the Soviet regime, which attempted to "Russify" most of the republics of Central Asia - Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tadzhikstan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. Despite this, much has remained of the peculiar character of each county and today the cultures, religions and traditions of the various peoples of Central Asia are passing through a phase of rebirth. The most famous testament of the rich history of this part of Asia are Samarkand, with its magical light blue domes; the enchanted fortified oasis of Bukhara, where Marco Polo stayed; and Khiva, the historic heart of which is a veritable open-air museum that is still very much alive and all the more precious since most of the historic towns in this vast region have been destroyed. Then there are the cities of the Fergana valley still rich in cultural tradition: Margelan, the ancient city lost in time with its streets populated by Uzbeks with their typical costumes, old tea houses, open markets with multicoloured fruit; Kokand, with its great Muslim tradition and the Khan's well preserved, immense palace; the intriguing Arab city of Osh with its traditional marketplace brimming wilh perfumed pyramids of fruit and vegetables, dried fruit stalls, pitchers of honey and fresh cheese, piles of tasty "lavash" flat bread, and the incessant flow of women with their highly coloured silk dresses worn over the characteristic trousers and the men in their boots, coats and typical Kyrgyz white felt hats with black decoration.

Enclosed between the Alai range to the south and east and by the Tien Shan range to the north, the Fergana valley is the fertile heart of these large mountains. When in the 3rd century B.C. the envoys of the Chinese emperor came to this region to see the celebrated Fergana horses, whose speed was legendary throughout Asia, and to seek allies in order to control the trade routes, the valley had already been intensely cultivated and its towns were the most frequented oasis in the entire Silk Road. The thriving trade along the ancient Silk Road, as well as the many invasions on the part of foreign armies that came to the steppe for booty, developed the complex culture of Central Asia. The most ancient inhabitants of this area descended from immigrants who had fled from Persia long before Alexander the Great's time; they remained different from the other populations both in their language (which was linked to ancient Persian) and their work, which was traditionally agricultural. The Turkmens, Uzbeks, Kazakhs and Kyrgyz, who are of Mongolian stock, arrived later in the successive waves of immigration or conquest, for centuries they concentrated on horse and sheep breeding.

During the summer the shepherds slowly take their animals through the steppes towards the mountains. The Kyrgyz stop at the slopes of the Alai mountains, where they also train hunting falcons, or they move on to the slopes of the Pamirs and set up the traditional Central Asian tents, the yurts, which have been the dwellings of all the nomadic shepherds in this region for centuries. They are shaped like a wide cylinder with a low cone on top and are made of curved willow branches covered with thick felt. inside, the "furniture" consists of a stove, a low table, many rugs and lots of embroidered cloth used to sleep and sit on, and to keep out the cold. The local shepherds were probably the guides for the first explorers of the Pamir range, when in the last century Great Britain and Russia, whose expanding, empires were approaching each other, decided to initiate a systematic study of the region in order to find the source of the Indus and Oxas (Amu Darya) rivers. Centuries before, Marco Polo had left the first description of the Pamirs; he had crossed them in the zone of present-day Afghanistan during, his legendary journey to Cathay, and among, other things he mentions the race of huge sheep that were later named after him.